How You Should NOT Think About the Election

 What You’ve Heard Before

This has been a very difficult week for those who voted for Kamala Harris. Harris lost the Electoral College by a lot (226-301), and over on the right, they’re calling it a landslide. It’s probably true that she lost the popular vote as well—but by a much, much smaller margin than the electoral vote gap, and one that continues to shrink as votes continue to be counted. (Thirteen states are still counting their votes as I write, the weekend after the election, and that includes the massive state of California.)

The reaction of those who voted Republican has been predictable. If you looked at the rightwing news or social media, you saw a lot of exulting about the joy of “drinking delicious liberal tears.” Scenes of Democrats looking shocked or depressed and hugging one another were looped with gloating and laughs. That’s how things go today: when MAGA voters win, they taunt their opponents, and when they lose, they rant that the process was rigged and the vote was stolen, and toss in a insurrectionist riot and threats of militia action. For those on the American left, this is depressing, but it’s hardly surprising anymore.

Meanwhile, around the world, some nationalist authoritarian parties were celebrating the outcome, but the reaction of most non-Americans I have witnessed has been, “You’re kidding, right? What is wrong with Americans? Don’t you realize that when you vote for cartoon fascists it hurts the whole world? OK, ok, fine: we’ll have our national leader make polite congratulating noises to avoid drawing the attention of your unstable, vindictive president.”

What We’re Not Talking About

There’s a thing called American Exceptionalism: a belief that the US is uniquely important, and also just plain unique. Americans often act as if we exist in a vacuum, on our own planet, and our conversations about current events frequently ignore the whole rest of the world.

Now, the American left does critique this from time to time. We raise the alarm about global climate change threating humanity, and tear our hair when Trump waves this off and endlessly repeats his sexualized taunt to “drill baby drill” for all that “black gold” that will allow MAGA fans to drive giant tanklike trucks around on cheap gasoline.

Another example: Americans who actually tune in to policy discussions by economists have heard those on the left regularly pointing out that while inflation may feel painful, it’s actually been way more mild in the US than in much of the rest of the world. These economists note over and over again the inflationary factors that have impacted nations around the globe. There was Covid; the supply-chain disruptions it caused; the slowdowns in manufacturing during lockdowns; the feverish way that people isolated in their homes purchased goods for delivery, driving up prices and then willingly paying them; the stimulus checks being issued by governments lifting spending on basics by those at the bottom of the wealth distribution; the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia that followed causing the cost of fuel to soar; and oh yes, profiteering by corporations who saw they could raise prices well above their increase in costs, and that people would just buy anyway, resulting in fat profit margins and bonuses for CEOs.

Relax! said these economists. Inflation was something being experienced around the world, not some unique American problem. And inflation was much higher in many other countries. Anyway, in the US, it had slowed down to basically normal pre-pandemic rates by November, and wages had also risen, so many people were actually no worse off financially than they had been before the pandemic. Americans should realize how fortunate they were, internationally speaking! Instead of whining, they should be praising their government.

Telling people that they shouldn’t be upset about inflation did not go over well at all, though what the economists said was otherwise largely true. But the point I want to make is that we on the left do sometimes talk about the US just being one nation in an entire world, impacted like all other nations by global events.

But not when it comes to discussing our elections.

People on the left come in various flavors and factions, and each has its competing visions about what the Democratic party should do to win elections. And post-election, they’ve been groaning about what went wrong—fuming at the mass of people who would vote for someone as overwhelmingly flawed and negative as Trump, but even more, it has seemed, pointing their fingers at one another and assigning blame to other factions on the left. I’ll talk more about this in a bit. But you know what is missing from this post-election analysis? Global context.

There have been a lot of major elections in nations around the world this year—an unusual year in which more than half the world’s population went to the polls. These elections have turned out many different ways! Yes, in some areas, far-right parties made big gains—for example, as they did notably in Italy. But in others, conservative parties saw major losses, as they did in Japan and in Britain. In France, it was the centrist coalition that saw a huge loss, with voters surging both to the right and to the left.

These results may sound random, but they very much were not. What these losing parties all had in common is that they were all the incumbent party that had governed their nation during the Covid pandemic and the inflationary surge that Covid and the war in Ukraine had precipitated. In nation after nation, the populace expressed the pain it felt as a result of the pandemic and inflation by kicking out whoever was in power. Throw the bums out!

This isn’t a rational response. None of the world leaders, left right and center, who found themselves and their parties kicked out of office had caused the Covid pandemic. None of them wanted to inflict a gale of inflation on their voters.  

But while we like to talk about voters carefully weighing competing policies as they rationally make decisions about whom they’ll support, a lot of people--especially low-information voters--do not operate in that way. They vote “with their gut.” They take their emotional temperature, and that of those they care about and interact with. And if they and those around them are feeling unhappy about the state of their world, then they vote to evict the current leadership and vote in a new one.

If you take this global perspective, you can see that the Democratic party was highly disadvantaged at this moment in history. Americans, like people all over the world, are feeling anxious and unhappy in the aftermath of Covid and the inflationary surge that followed. And for a chunk of the electorate, that means “push the button for the other candidate, whatever their policies or foibles.”

Harris lost because incumbent parties all around the world lost this year.

If you look at it from this perspective, you see that actually, Harris did quite well (or Trump did quite poorly), in comparison to leaders in many nations. Harris lost by perhaps 2% of the vote. If you consider not just who voted, but all eligible American voters—about a third of whom did not vote this year (which is historically speaking actually a high turnout)—she likely lost by under 1%.

The campaign did a valiant job, and that shows! But that’s cold comfort, as it wasn’t enough to overcome the major headwind Harris faced, even if she fared better than other world leaders in this election year.

What NOT to Do in the Aftermath of the Election

There’s a longstanding description that portrays the left as a “circular firing squad.” This depicts the left as foolishly focused on inter-faction power struggles, rather than on facing its opponents.

The thing is, this is in a way true—but it’s not some characteristic of the left! It’s a common human behavior, and you see it just as much on the political right. Just look at the Trump coalition, which includes as very uneasy bedfellows Evangelical Christian nationalists who are vehemently anti-abortion and pro “purity culture,” and Joe Rogan frathouse fans who want access to lots of no-strings-attached sex. Behold as well the mutual hatred of Trump's core fans and the Republican old establishment that MAGA-types call RINOs and cucks.

That said, looking around the networks and lefty groups I’m a part of, I sure saw a lot of the circular-firing-squad dynamic in action this week. And that’s unsurprising, really. We just suffered a major loss, and you are probably familiar with the stages of grief—denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance. Well, we’re in the anger phase. We want someone to blame and rage at. At least we've made more progress in a few days than many on the right made in four years. . . You’ve seen how so many in the MAGA crowd refused ever to move on from the initial stage of denial, under the influence of Trump, who is not exactly a positive influence on people’s mental health. “It never happened! Biden lost and the 2020 election was stolen!” 

Because a lot of Harris voters are currently in the anger phase of grief, I have seen some really terrible lashing out—and things people say in anger they often regret.

This lashing out is falling along familiar fault lines. I have seen many centrist Democrats howling at progressives, calling them idiotic purists who inanely attacked Harris as pro-genocide because they don’t understand that politicians have to live in a real world of compromise and impurity, and can't just stop providing promised supplies and munitions to an ally that is surrounded by nations hostile to it. The centrists spit that progressives made Harris lose by voting for third parties or abstaining from voting over the war in Gaza. Look at all how many people didn’t vote, they growl!

But consider these facts: few people voted for third-party candidates this election cycle, and those doing so were at least as likely to be reducing the Trump vote as the Harris tally. Also, clearly, if you believed that that third of eligible Americans who didn’t vote this year were alienated progressive Harris voters, then it would be obvious that a centrist stance is the wrong one to take, and Harris should have tacked way left, not to the center. 

A more sensible claim is that it looks like Trump’s total vote tally will be very similar to what he got in 2020, while Harris’ total will fall beneath Biden’s. But why blame that on progressives? Don’t forget two important things! First, the 2020 election took place while many states were in lockdowns, making it easier for people ordinarily working many unpredictable hours to actually make it to polls to vote. And secondly, states drastically changed their voting rules in 2020 to account for lockdowns and make it easier for Americans to vote without having to actually go to the polls on election day, with 69% of Americans voting in that election by mail or in special early voting. By 2024, that special flexibility was gone--and instead, state rules had become much more restrictive, with most swing states making it harder for people to vote than it had been before the pandemic, in ways that negatively impact typical Democratic voters more than Republican ones. This was intentional, justifying actions taken to advance Republican interests under the banner of “election integrity.”

Instead of blaming progressives for the apparent dip in the total number of Democrats voting, why are centrists not blaming restrictive voting laws pushed by Republicans under cover of “avoiding fraud?”

On the other side of the centrist/progressive divide, I have seen progressives gnashing and wailing that the centrists have gotten Trump elected by urging Harris to become essentially a moderate Republican, on the theory that this would peel off sane Republican voters from Trump. Instead, progressives cry, centrists betrayed everything the left stands for, only to see that when Republican-leaning voters are given a choice between a full-on-rightwing demagogue and a smiling Republican-lite figure, they go for the undiluted version.

Personally, I agree that it is distressing to watch Democratic presidential candidates move further right every election season, allowing Republicans to set the agenda and then chasing the center rightwards. In a year in which the global electorate was obsessed with inflation, feeling insecure, and wanting simple answers, giving complex explanations of a centrist position calculated to achieve an economic result that would rationally displease the fewest possible people wasn’t helpful. The media were fond of repeating a refrain that “Americans want to know more exactly what policies Harris stands for,” but that was not true. The many low-information American voters who do sometimes turn out for a presidential election, but otherwise ignore all talk about politics, are not about to read policy papers. They pay no attention to that kind of thing. What they did see were the sea of simplistic lawn signs reading “Trump Low Prices/Harris High Prices.” They saw the “I did that!” stickers of Joe Biden on gas pumps when those prices were highest. They encountered the short, ominous social media ads with the tagline “Harris is for They/Them. Trump is for Us.” Propaganda, true! But pithy, easy to understand, ubiquitous, and effective.

Discussions of complex compromise policy platforms were not what was going to win this election. But still, centrists had valid claims to make about a centrist position being persuasive to some independents. This election took place in a year characterized by fears about inability to support a family and pay the rent. Americans, like people around the globe, were feeling insecure, unsafe, divided, anxious—and were exposed to a relentless blaming of immigrants on Fox News and OANN and Rumble and the like. It was perfectly rational for the Harris campaign to speak to those concerns. To promise to work for all Americans. To say she was a prosecutor, a believer in the rule of law who actually owned a gun for her protection. To say she would enforce the laws that govern immigration. To contrast herself with Trump’s many felonies and disdain for the FBI and desire to circumvent the Constitution. There is a sizeable sector of independent voters who cited these things when explaining why they decided to vote for Harris. It just wasn’t enough to stop the tidal wave of anti-incumbent sentiment around the world manifesting here in the US, especially among the more numerous low-information voters.

Yelling at other people on the left does exactly nothing to reverse the election results. Instead, it does a lot of harm. And I’ve seen some very harmful, misguided finger-pointing out there this week. I have seen white Democrats framing Black men as dangerous fools voting against their own interests due to an addiction to hypermasculinity that makes them love Trump as a thug and misogynistically refuse to vote for Harris. Uhh—which demographic group was most likely to vote for Trump? Why, it’s Anglo white men, 60% of whom voted for Trump this year. Only 21% of Black men voted for Trump. If white people want to point fingers, they should point them at themselves. Consider which women voted for Harris: 91% of Black women, 60% of Latinas—and 45% of Anglo white women.

As a trans man married to a trans women, it has personally been particularly depressing to see Democratic politicians blaming trans people for the Democratic loss. This is a variation on the longstanding claim by socially-conservative populist Democrats that “identity politics” are dragging the party down, and that Democrats should focus on economic issues only, not social justice distractions. For example, Massachusetts Congressional Representative Seth Moulton stated, “Democrats spend way too much time trying not to offend anyone rather than being brutally honest about the challenges many Americans face. . . I have two little girls, I don’t want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete, but as a Democrat I’m supposed to be afraid to say that.” This exactly parrots rightwing transphobic claims, framing trans girls as physically-superior “males” who threaten and harm cis girls, and then claiming to be censored and silenced from voicing transphobic myths while clearly speaking them to a national audience.

In the name of supposedly protecting his children from what are in fact myths, Moulton is ready to throw other parents’ children to the wolves because they are trans, which is a terrible reaction to a Harris loss that so imperils trans youth. And it is based on a completely incorrect premise: that Democrats spend too much time focused on trans issues, alienating conservatives. But just look at what the candidates and their ads actually said! Harris barely mentioned trans people, and rights of trans youths were not a topic of her ads. Instead, it was Trump who spewed crazy stories about children going to school in the morning, and coming home a different sex, to the shock and horror of their parents. It was the Trump campaign saying, “Harris is for They/Them. Trump is for Us.” It was MAGA ads making wild claims that Harris was inviting dangerous “illegals” to come and get free sex changes paid for by “you”, the ostensibly hardworking, longsuffering, disrespected, sensibly transphobic, true American.

When Trump and his ilk are scapegoating marginalized people, doing the same as a Democratic politician isn’t just a cowardly act that fails to protect the vulnerable—it is politically pointless as it nets you no benefit. You will still be painted as the party that supports that demonized other by MAGA. Please remember that MAGA beliefs are not based in empirical facts—they are based on feelings about what is true. So you can in fact trumpet rampant transphobia, but you’ll never be considered as truly transphobic as a MAGA candidate. For people who are going to make their election decisions based on denying trans people rights, you will always lose. So you might as well do the ethical thing and not be a bigot. (Though I’d prefer folks do the ethical thing because of empathy and a commitment to treating other humans with respect. . .)

There are other examples of Democrats pointing their fingers at other Democratic groups and blaming them for the election loss, but you get the idea. The main point about what not to do after the Trump win is this: don’t attack your fellow travelers. People on the left are a varied bunch. We may not share the same focus or tactics. But we need each other!

In fact, we will need one another soon more than ever. There will be bad things coming. The Project 2025 manifesto lists an eye-popping number of them. Seeking out, imprisoning, and deporting undocumented immigrants who are working important but underpaid jobs, who have committed no crimes--even if they are married to citizens. (Reminder: Melania Trump worked illegally as a model in the US before she had a work visa. . .). Gutting the public service agencies that protect us from toxins and crime syndicates and employer abuse. Slashing investments in green energy and opening nature preserves to oil drilling. Disbanding the Department of Education, funding religious schooling, and banning the mention of LGBTQ+ people in any schools. Making provision of trans-affirming care to minors a federal felony—perhaps for adults as well. Making a desperate situation even worse for Palestinians in Gaza, and propping up Netanyahu, the Trump of Israel. Pulling out of international treaties and threatening NATO allies. Undoing the public health advances of the past century by ceasing to require childhood vaccines and pulling fluoride out of the water. Finding new ways to restrict abortion access and to punish those seeking and providing abortions, under the guise of “states’ rights” and “religious freedom.” Replacing the staff of the Department of Justice with MAGA true believers who have oathed loyalty to Trump, and charging them with making remaining civil rights protections toothless.  Prosecuting prominent Democrats and saying they can’t complain, as Trump was prosecuted (because he actually committed crimes. . .).  And following the authoritarian playbook of seeking to make a one-time win permanent, with oligarchs like Elon Musk empowered to transfer more and more wealth to themselves, and therefore supporting the regime.

In short, the reality is that the Trump win was a narrow one, and what moved more people to vote for him in 2024 than 2020 wasn’t really about him at all. It was the global shriek of frustration at the state of the world in the aftermath of Covid, with widening income inequality and high costs of living. But Trump and his administration will assert he won a landslide and has a mandate to ignore the near-half of the voters who opposed him.

And this is why we on the left will all need each other at our sides.

It’s exhausting to contemplate, because we were here before, and so recently. We remember the feelings of constant crisis and insecurity of the last Trump administration—and how MAGA fans enjoyed it all like a WWE match or conflict-rich reality TV show, gloating about stomping the libs. This is not what I or much of anyone on the left wanted! But those of us who are able have to do all we can to preserve the things we believe in, and to help the people who get harmed.

So: please resist that impulse to direct your anger at the closest target—your fellow travelers. Forgive yourself if you did so, and forgive those who did it to you, because people do unhelpful things when they are shocked and grieving. Understand that it is a common human impulse to express your anger and frustration laterally at a safe target, rather than up at the target that really endangers you. But however common it may be, it’s counterproductive.

We do not need a circular firing squad. We need one another!